If you're a big music fan, you've probably argued about the inductees into the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame...who's in there that shouldn't be...who's not there that should be...that's not what this is about...
I watched this year's ceremony live and before it started they asked some people about future inductees, some of which I thought had good chances and some of which I thought were ridiculous.
I started to think about who were absolute first round shoe-ins when their time came. You can be nominated in the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame 25 years after your first release. I believe originally it was supposed to be after your first album release, but I remember some hubbub the year The Who went in that it was actually 25 years after their first single and it would have been a year later for their first album (or maybe it had something to do with album release date in the UK vs US). Either way, I realized there are very few acts you can name that will get first round inductions at this time.
Part of the issue is longevity, a band or artist that is HUGE and would seem to have potential, could fade away after an album or two (although there are band's in the Hall with only one album).
But mainly the bands I thought about were ones with debut releases from 1984 (who will be elibible this year for next year's induction) through those which started in the mid to late 90's - so we have some historical significance and track record to look at.
I planned on blogging on this in parts, maybe by genre or year by year, but today MSNBC posted their list of the Top 10 Grunge Bands of the 90's (although many of them started in the 80's).
I'm not going to discuss who should / shouldn't be on the list or where they are on the list, but I'll lay odds on who makes it into the Rock Hall...so place your bets!
10. The Melvins - Eligible in 2010. The Melvins are very close to that 25 year mark of first officially released tracks but have absolutely ZERO chance of getting in on the first ballot. I expect more and more heavy music will be entering the Hall (with Metallica this year as first balloteers and Black Sabbath in 2006...having to wait over ten years...makes sense right, they're only the most influential Heavy Metal band of all time!). So yes, the Melvins will not be entering the Rock Hall anytime soon but I don't rule them out completely...if the Hall creates an "influences" category, then check back in 10 years and I'll give them 20:1)
9. Temple of the Dog - Eligible in 2016. I'll go 4:1 on TOTD. The Rock Hall loves a reunion and to get this supergroup of basically Pearl Jam with Chris Cornell of Soundgarden to play on their stage would be a coup. I believe TOTD would be eligible the same year as Pearl Jam which I think hurts their chances, but at the same time the voters might figure "Hey we got Pearl Jam here already...why not"...so yeah I call it four to one.
8. Mudhoney - Eligible in 2013. A fan favorite longshot at 8:1. Bands love them, critics love their early stuff - I think they are everything that is right about rock n roll. I think there will be a buzz (perhaps a Super Buzz Big Muff) about whether or not to enter them in that first year and if they don't make it then, they'll never make it.
7. Hole - Eligible in 2016. My thoughts are this, Blondie made it first round, so Hole should DEFINITELY as well, but I can't go 1:1. I'm gonna do a 2:1 coin flip as Courtney may have too many haters and politics might get involved - but how can you deny her/their influence...how many girls picked up guitars, not to mention the style! As Nirvana sold flannel, Courtney moved Baby Doll dresses. It all wasn't just style and influence either - there's GREAT songs and some of them were big hits and that should push them right through the door.
6. Soundgarden - Eligible in 2012. Soundgarden have everything that should ensure first round induction - A long awaited reunion, Monster Hits, History (wasn't Soundgarden the first Vinyl release by Sub Pop, basically putting them on the map as a RECORD Label). I think it's a very safe bet, but I'm not giving 1:1...let's go 5:4...so close to a sure thing, but not quite there...
5. Screaming Trees - Eligible in 2010 or 2011. Screaming Trees will never be in the Rock Hall. I love the band, I love Lanegan's solo/side projects, but they don't even have Melvins like name dropping going for them. Infinity:1
4. Stone Temple Pilots - Eligible in 2017. As close to being a shoe in as Soundgarden - monster hits and tons of them. People will be ready for another reunion tour by then...like Soundgarden I'll go 5:4
3. Alice In Chains - Eligible in 2015. AIC were 1:1, but pulling back a little to 5:4 as of right now and could pull back farther as the year goes on. Why? Because they reunited to underwhelming fanfare and now they are releasing an album of new material. Still Layne's death will almost definitely get them in there as it was a MAJOR loss to rock music (and in my opinion "Dirt" is one of those few musical platters known as a Perfect Album)
2. Nirvana - Eligible 2014. Please - I would bet my life savings. ONE:ONE - I wonder who they'll get to sing for them when they reunite...Frances Bean anyone? I could see it
1. Pearl Jam - Eligible 2016. The Rock hall doesn't like Eddie Vedder...They LOVE Eddie Vedder. Once the year's inductees are announced, it's always interesting to see who is going to induct them...well Eddie has inducted The Doors, Neil Young, The Ramones and R.E.M....Pearl Jam continue to sell out arenas every year, have their share of hits and the Rock Hall can't wait to add them...two years after I double my money on Nirvana, I'll double up again here. ONE:ONE
So there you go...down the road I'll take a look at alt rock bands left off the list, hard rock/metal, hip hop and who knows what else...but while there's alot of bands that have a shot, there's very few that will get that first year induction